By Matthew Polyak

Milwaukee, Wisconsin held the first Republican Party primary debate on August 23, 2023. The debate would include Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. The most notable candidate who did not participate was Donald Trump, who was doing a Twitter interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Pre-Debate Polling and Expectations  

According to a YouGov poll ran from August 17th-August 21st, Trump was leading by 52%. DeSantis was at 12%, Ramaswamy was at 8%, Tim Scott was at 4%, Nikki Haley was at 3%, Chris Christie and Mike Pence were at 2%, and Doug Burgum was at 1%. Republican primary voters were surveyed.

Ron DeSantis’ campaign was plateauing for a couple of weeks, meaning that his clear goal for the debate was to stay out of the hot seat and survive the debate. For Ramaswamy, the clear goal was to gain attention and become the candidate who sticks out like a sore thumb. Mike Pence needed to solidify his record as the former Vice President. Nikki Haley needed to pick up favorability amongst traditional Republicans, while Chris Christie needed to pick up favorability amongst the liberal wing of the party. The rest of the candidates, such as Burgum and Scott would really have no chance.

The Debate Itself

The debate covered numerous topics, such as the economy, abortion, Ukraine, Russia, China, and many more. Every major candidate had succeeded in their goals, which I listed above. DeSantis spoke about his record as Florida Governor and stated his desire to reverse Biden’s economic policy. Other than that, he escaped the debate unscathed. Because of the explosiveness of Ramaswamy, the candidates did not necessarily attack DeSantis as much, which was exactly what he would have wanted.

And speaking of Vivek Ramaswamy, his highlights were his bold claims. The businessman uses hand movements and speaks in a way that is attractive to young people (especially Gen Z). His major claims were that he was the only candidate that is not “bought and paid for” and that climate change was a hoax. However, some of the lines he used were lines used by former candidates, such as “Who the heck is this skinny guy with a funny last name, and what the heck is he doing in the middle of this debate stage?” This was a line used by Obama in 2004. Ramaswamy was immediately attacked by Christie for this, calling him someone who “sounds like ChatGPT.” He also got into an argument with Nikki Haley on foreign policy. Ramaswamy had proposed an idea to limit overseas involvement with Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Haley hit back at him immediately, saying “You want to go and defund Israel. You want to give Taiwan to China… You want to go and give Ukraine to Russia… you would make America less safe. You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows.” Ramaswamy accomplished his goal. He certainly drew attention to himself.

Mike Pence fell into a bit of a limbo. He defended his decision to not stop the certification of the 2020 election on January 6th, 2021, while then defending what he and Trump accomplished during their 4-year term. Mike Pence became extremely unpopular amongst Trump supporters after January 6th and was criticized heavily by Trump. He acknowledged that Trump was in the wrong, but simultaneously defended Trump for his policies during his presidency. It is clear that most Republican voters either like Trump or don’t. This did not help Pence, but he was able to get his point across about his tenure as Vice President and how it was successful before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nikki Haley accomplished her goal by picking up favorability amongst traditional Republican voters. As mentioned above, she made her point of being very pro-Israel and wanting to continue to support Taiwan and Ukraine in some way. She also was big on the abortion topic. Saying, “…when you’re talking about a federal ban, be honest with the American people… don’t make women feel like they have to decide on this issue when you know we don’t have 60 Senate votes in the House.” She wants an agreement between all of the American people—and one that will actually pass through lawmakers.

The rest of the candidates, such as Christie, Scott, and Burgum never really broke through, as expected.

Post-Debate Analysis 

In a Fox News poll, GOP voters concluded that DeSantis had the best performance. Ramaswamy was the 2nd best, and Haley was the 3rd best. The New York Post found that Ramaswamy had a slight edge over DeSantis, with Haley still in 3rd. Essentially, DeSantis and Ramaswamy were the two big winners of the debate according to polling, with Haley picking up the most steam.

FiveThirtyEight’s national polling post-debate shows Trump at 50.3%, DeSantis at 14.8%, Ramaswamy at 9.2%, Haley at 5.6%, Pence at 3.6%, and Christie at 3.6%.

My Opinion

I believe that Ron DeSantis was the clear winner of the debate. He seemed to be the adult in the room, and made his points strong and clear, especially on his record as governor. I think that he is more electable than Trump, since Trump is very unpopular amongst independents. I also feel that Ramaswamy poses no threat to both of them. Trump on TruthSocial applauded Ramaswamy for his performance, while criticizing DeSantis. If Trump sees you as an enemy, he will attack you. If he sees you as a non-threat, he will not. Nikki Haley did very well, but some of her viewpoints might come across as “too liberal” to the conservative section of the party, where the Trump supporters are. The rest of the candidates, once again, have virtually no chance.

The next debate will be on September 27th. It will be interesting to see if Trump participates. At this point in time, the race for the White House on the GOP side looks like a two-horse race between Trump and DeSantis. But for now, Trump is the clear front-runner. And as the indictments grow, so does his popularity amongst conservatives and his chance for the nomination.

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SOURCES

• DAILYWIRE.COM 
• CBSNEW.COM 
• FOXNEWS.COM 
• CNN.COM 
• PBS.ORG 
• NPR.ORG 
• FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM 
• THEHILL.COM 
• ABCNEWS.GO.COM 
• NYPOST.COM 
• APNEWS.COM 
• USATODAY.COM 
• NYTIMES.COM 
• WASHINGTONPOST.COM 
• RONDESANTIS.COM 
• DONALDJTRUMP.COM 
• VIVEK2024.COM 
• NIKKIHALEY.COM 
• ADMIN.MIKEPENCE2024.COM